US and EU expand fast; China disappoints

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news the OECD's global minimum tax deal is now much closer.</p><p>But first in the US, last week's <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20211252.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>initial jobless claims report</strong></a> was a positive one with 359,000 added in the week, well lower than what was expected and a post pandemic low. However there are still 3.4 mln people on these benefits and until this level gets down to under 2 mln, it won't be back to pre-pandemic levels. They are getting there, but slowly now, with <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-to-lowest-monthly-total-in-21-years-20476-planned-cuts-in-june/" target="_blank"><strong>job cuts announced</strong></a> in June at a very low level and now at a 21 year low. All eyes now turn to tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls report and a +700,000 gain expected.</p><p>Around the <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/306fe32ac993444d83dc666c249f8d52" target="_blank"><strong>world</strong></a>, there was a solid upturn in global manufacturing extending but stretched supply chains are driving up costs nearly everywhere. The dominant driver of this expansion is in the US where they <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/0501c114d9194cb889d175b0ba828bf1" target="_blank"><strong>recorded</strong></a> their equal fastest expansion ever in the Markit survey, and a minor pullback from very high levels in their <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/june/" target="_blank"><strong>ISM survey</strong></a>. Both surveys recorded strong order intakes and very elevated cost pressures. Both reported labour shortages.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/P