The US economy shows why it is #1

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news American resilience is on full display today.</p><p>First up, our weekly look at the up-to-date stress index of the American labour market shows ... nothing. <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20230122.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>Weekly jobless claims</strong></a> fell last week and fell more than expected. On a seasonally adjusted basis it is a 9-month low. There are now only 1.87 mln people on these benefits, -7% fewer than a year ago. There may be a recession coming in the US in 2023, but it won't be led by their labour market.</p><p>However, the tech-sector layoffs keep building, and news about them is everywhere. But demographics and their widespread labour shortages in skilled positions isn't meaning their labour market is buckling. Not yet, anyway.</p><p>And there is no sign in America's factories either. <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>Durable goods orders</strong></a> soared +5.6% in December from November, the sharpest gain since July 2020 and well above market forecasts of a healthy +2.5% rise. From a year ago these orders are +11.2% higher, more than accounting for inflation. Capital goods orders were up +25% year-on-year. No sign of recession in this factory order data.</p><p>But this data is for the immediate future. We are coming off a flat period in American factories however. The National Activity Index produced by the Chicago Fed, <a href="https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2023-01/cfnai-january2023.pdf"><strong>reported</strong></a> little change. And the next Fed district to report its factory activity <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/Manufacturing/documents/9340/Manufacturing-Survey-Jan-26-2023.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>said</stron