The recovery glow fades

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news there is a growing sense that the stellar global economic V recovery may be waning.</p><p>The US non-farm payroll report for June is due out on Saturday (NZT) and today the precursor <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/June/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-June2021-Final-Press-Release.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>ADP Employment Report</strong></a> came in with a +692,000 rise which was better than expected (+600,000). But this June gain actually represents a slowdown from the (downwardly-revised) +886,000 increase in May. Analysts are expecting a non-farm payroll rise of +700,000. So payrolls are only growing modestly at this time.</p><p>The <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images.chaptermanager.com/chapters/b742ccc3-ff70-8eca-4cf5-ab93a6c8ab97/files/mni-chicago-press-release-2021-06.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>Chicago PMI</strong></a> slipped from its unusually high level in May, but the June level is still very high. However, prices paid at the factory gate surged by their biggest jump in 42 years</p><p>US <a href="https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/xg94hp534/pz50ht47k/0g355c356/grst0621.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>grain stocks</strong></a> for corn, soy and wheat fell by almost -50% in June from their March levels, a decline that was more than the one expected. When they are released in a few days, world food prices are expected to have risen sharply again.</p><p>It’s a public holiday in Hong Kong today, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Special_Administrative_Region_Establishment_Day" target="_blank"><strong>Establishment Day</strong></a>, celebrating the transition from British to Chinese ownership when it was agreed to be as a Special Administrative Region (SAR).</p><p>In China, their <a href="http://www.stats.gov