Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance

<p>Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://manifold.markets/">Manifold Markets</a>: <a href="https://manifold.markets/" class="linkified" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/</a></p><p>Watch on <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://youtu.be/XoRXrnHg084">YouTube</a>. Listen on <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/27-stephen-grugett-manifold-markets-founder-predictions/id1516093381?i=1000559667223">Apple Podcasts</a>, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0PIp8YHRRMGsYtOSO9yC3Y?si=ZyQQd2SaQ0y5h4kZrfOAnQ">Spotify</a>, or any other podcast platform.</p><p>Episode website <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/stephen-grugett">here</a>.<br/>Follow <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp">me on Twitter</a> for updates on future episodes.</p><p></p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(0:00:00) - Introduction</p><p>(0:02:29) - Predicting the future</p><p>(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information</p><p>(0:06:20) - Potentials</p><p>(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets</p><p>(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing</p><p>(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process</p><p>(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading</p><p>(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market</p><p>(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators</p><p>(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets</p><p>(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets</p><p>(0:26:10) - Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience</p><p>(0:28:49) - User Result Market</p><p>(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism</p><p>(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars</p><p>(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets</p