Resilience in the face of huge challenges

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news that generally isn't positive, but the data and sentiment seems to be remarkably resilient.</p><p>US <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>durable goods orders rose</strong></a> more in September than August, but not be as much as was expected. But the rise from a year ago was an impressive +11.5%. Orders for capital goods rose +13.6% on the same basis which is actually quite impressive in itself and indicates a broad commitment by firms there to new capital spending.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2022-advance-estimate" target="_blank"><strong>US economy grew an annualised +2.6% in Q3-2022</strong></a>, beating forecasts of a +2.4% rise and rebounding from a contraction in the first half of the year. Helping was strong business investment and a smaller current account deficit. Hurting was a fall in residential construction and marginally slower consumer spending. But this actually was the bit that held better than expected. This result is the first of three estimates, so is subject to revisions.</p><p>There were <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20222078.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>+183,000 new claims for jobless benefits</strong></a> last week, another low level and taking the total to 1.225 mln and a small increase but really, still bumping along near record lows. Next week's October non-farm payrolls are likely to to remain very solid.</p><p>Not so positive is the next <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/Manufacturing/documents/9196/Oct-2022-Manufacturing-Survey.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>regional factory survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed</strong></a> district. This one points to a sharpish softening in pro