Not by a Long Shot: With Guests Katia Jordan & Craig Fox

<p>Humans can easily distinguish between a zero-chance event (e.g., the Washington Nationals winning the World Series in 2022) and a sure thing (e.g., the sun coming up tomorrow). But in between those two clear outcomes, it turns out that we’re not great at estimating odds.</p><p>In this episode of <i>Choiceology with </i><a href="http://www.katherinemilkman.com/"><i>Katy Milkman</i></a>, a bias that affects the way we predict the likelihood of rare events.</p><p><a href="https://morganstatebears.com/sports/womens-tennis/roster/katia-jordan/5175">Katia Jordan</a> had all the makings of a tennis star: a preternatural talent, an intense drive to succeed, top-tier coaches, and parents who supported her dream completely. She was certain that she would be the next <a href="https://www.venuswilliams.com/">Venus Williams</a>. But along the way, she discovered that her path to tennis glory was not as straight as she imagined.</p><p>Katia Jordan is a former <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/sports/tennis-women/d1">Division 1</a> tennis player and is currently script coordinator on the television program <a href="https://www.cwtv.com/shows/all-american-homecoming/irreplaceable/?play=887c99a6-443f-4d32-9298-a934e6e519d3"><i>All </i>A<i>merican Homecoming</i></a>.</p><p>Next, Katy speaks with <a href="https://www.ucla.edu/">UCLA</a> psychology professor <a href="https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/management-and-organizations/faculty/fox">Craig Fox</a> about how we tend to overweight the likelihood of small probabilities. Building on seminal work by his mentor <a href="https://thedecisionlab.com/thinkers/economics/amos-tversky">Amos Tversky</a> and <a href="https://scholar.princeton.edu/kahneman/home">Daniel Kahneman</a>, Dr. Fox explains a bias in the way we imagine the odds of rare events and demonstrates approaches gleaned from <a href="https://www.craigrfox.com/research">his research</a> that can help us better avoid distortions in the way we conceptualize risk and reward.  </p><p>Craig Fox is the Harold Willi