No signals of imminent US labour market stress

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news we are in the shadow of tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls report which will give an important steer on where the world's largest economy is heading.</p><p>But there were some labour market indicators out today ahead of that report. First, <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20232552.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless claims rose</strong></a> last week. However, this was the usual seasonal increase, but little more, and were basically at the same level as the same week a year ago.</p><p>Secondly, the <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-jump-in-november-2023-from-october-second-time-this-year-cuts-lower-than-same-month-year-ago/" target="_blank"><strong>Challenger job cut report</strong></a> noted a tiny rise in November from the tiny level a month ago. But these levels very much less than the same month a year ago. There is nothing here to suggest labour market stress is building.</p><p>In Japan, there are <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank-of-Japan/Yen-climbs-to-143-after-BOJ-chief-hints-at-exit-from-negative-rates" target="_blank"><strong>a series of subtle signals</strong></a> coming out that the Bank of Japan is about to end its negative interest rate policy. These moves are expected over the New Year period. That saw the yen rise.</p><p>Exports from China unexpectedly <a href="http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302275/5549282/index.html" target="_blank"><strong>rose by +0.5%</strong></a> in November from the same month a year ago, after a -6.4% fall in the previous month and beating market forecasts of a -1.1% drop. It was their first increase in exports since April. But it isn't the gains that were expected and essentially dashes any hopes for an economic rebound in Ch