Metal prices signal fundamental optimism for 2023

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news metals prices are indicating 2023 may be a year of global economic recovery.</p><p>But first, if you are North Island listener, we trust you are surviving the downpours. They have been 'amazing', and not in a good way. And of course, today is a holiday in the top half of the North Island. Many of us will be using the day to clean up and brace for the next atmospheric waves. Hanging on the phone waiting for an insurance call center might be adding to some frustrations. Long waits for repairs and remediation will become the norm as contractor capacity is clearly going to be overwhelmed. Insurers are triaging claims, as you might expect.</p><p>So much damage has been done, it will have economic consequences here for months.</p><p>Elsewhere, China will be returning from its week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Although some may have been in a pensive mood, despite the extreme cold in some parts of the country, there is <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202301/28/WS63d455e2a31057c47ebab645.html" target="_blank"><strong>evidence</strong></a> that 'opening up' has being embraced by consumers. This is early evidence, and the strength of the return is still to be assessed. Beijing is making an effort to encourage consumer spending activity.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Indian economy is rising fast, with a growing economic expansion that shines in comparison with China now. But it seems the Indians are just copying the Chinese economic playbook, building it on "more debt" to fuel the expansion. <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_StatisticsDisplay.aspx?Id=464" target="_blank"><strong>Bank lending rose +16.7%</strong></a> from a year ago. <a href="https://www.mospi.gov.in/documents/213904/416359/Press%20Note%20FAE%202022-23_M1673006953862.pdf/431da0d2-8043-5d90-4385-4a68c3a5fda5"