John Ballingall: Why the time is ripe for a new trade strategy

<p>On the 22nd of November, while the National Party was putting the finishing touches on its coalition agreement, the European Union (EU) ratified a new trade deal with New Zealand.</p><p>It was the latest in a long line of agreements NZ has struck since 1983, but it could be the last. </p><p>Speaking in in the latest episode of interest.co.nz's <a href="https://www.interest.co.nz/of-interest-podcasts" target="_blank"><i><strong>Of Interest podcast</strong></i></a><i><strong>, </strong></i>John Ballingall, a partner at economic consultancy firm Sense Partners, says NZ may have reached “peak FTA” as there aren’t any likely or worthwhile deals on offer.</p><p>This jars with the newly-elected National-led government’s promise to “work relentlessly” to smooth NZ’s trade links and open up new markets for exporters. </p><p>Todd McClay, a senior and long-serving National MP, was sworn in as the Trade Minister on Monday and will be tasked with <a href="https://www.national.org.nz/national_sets_bold_target_for_export_growth" target="_blank"><strong>doubling the value of exports</strong></a> in the next 10 years.</p><p>Achieving that goal would require an annual growth rate of 7.2%, compared to an historical average over the past decade of roughly 4%. </p><p>The past two years have seen much higher rates of growth but only because various exports have bounced back from very low levels during the era of pandemic restrictions.</p><p>National says it'll chase the goal by working to win a trade deal with India and the Gulf Cooperation Council, while also reducing “non-tariff barriers” to make trade cheaper. </p><p>Ballingall says the incoming government needs to put the most resources into that last element. </p><p>A <a target="_blank"><strong>paper he published in October</strong></a> provocatively suggests NZ should “gently say no” to any country looking to start an FTA negotiation, unless it will be clean and fast. </p><p>The exceptions to this rule would be India, the United States, and the Gulf Cooperation Council countr