Exploring why emergency admission risk prediction software increased admissions in Wales

In this episode we speak to Professor Helen Snooks who is Professor of Health Services Research in the Medical School at Swansea University in Wales. Paper: Implementing emergency admission risk prediction in general practice: a qualitative study https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2021.00146 (https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2021.00146) UK policy has incentivised use of risk prediction stratification in primary care to reduce emergency hospital admissions, despite lack of evidence about process or effect. In a trial evaluating a risk prediction tool (PRISM) in general practice, our team reported increased emergency and hospital admissions. To understand implementation, we interviewed GPs and Practice Managers who reported using PRISM on a small group of high-risk patients. Although they doubted any impact on care, they said PRISM raised their awareness of highest-risk patient groups, which potentially may affect unplanned hospital attendance and admissions.