Daily blog (audio): How many times did it land on black? [The Gambler's Fallacy]

<p>How many times did it land on black? [The Gambler's Fallacy]</p> <p><br> <br> We're on a mission to help one million people RISE by 2030 - join the movement at <a href="http://www.myrise.co.uk/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.myrise.co.uk</a></p> <p><br></p> <p>During the lockdowns of the last year or so, the family and I had numerous ‘themed’ evenings in.</p> <p>Race nights, drive thru cinema, quizzes, game shows and much more.</p> <p>We did a casino night too.</p> <p>Got a new roulette wheel and baize of Amazon to go with the black jack set we already have.</p> <p>Our youngest particularly enjoyed that night.</p> <p>So much so that I sometimes find him with the roulette wheel out, counting the numbers and having a spin.</p> <p>Do you know what the record is for most consecutive lands on one colour?</p> <p>At least in a well know, casino type situation?</p> <p>It was in Monte-Carlo on August 18, 1913.</p> <p>The ball fell on black 26 times in a row.</p> <p>A one in 67 million chance (as you might expect, I just figured that out with Excel).</p> <p>Gamblers lost millions expecting it to land on red along the way.</p> <p>You can imagine people saying “It can’t land on black again” or “What are the chances?”</p> <p>That game made the term “the gambler’s fallacy” famous.</p> <p>“when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events”</p> <p>The chances, of course, of it landing on black again are 50-50.</p> <p>What happened before has zero impact on what’s about to happen.</p> <p>But the human brain is tempted to see it a different way.</p> <p>As it often does in many areas.</p> <p>We make decisions based off our last decisions.</p> <p>We eat too much and then that’s the reason for eating too much again at the next meal.</p> <p>Framing it as “writing off” that time period (day, weekend, week, etc).</p> <p>Or we have one drink and use that a reason to have another.</p> <p>We miss one workout and us