Australia may be facing more rate hikes

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news Australia may be facing more rate hikes.</p><p>But first, the tight American labour market is still showing its resilience. The number of Americans filing for <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20231626.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>jobless benefits</strong></a> fell slightly last week to 258,000 when a seasonal rise was anticipated. However the number of people on these benefits rose to 1.89 mln as they are staying on longer now. But these overall levels are very low given their employed workforce is 161.6 mln.</p><p>The factory survey in the huge Pennsylvanian rust belt did not improve as expected in July. The <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2023/bos0723.pdf?la=en&hash=01E0CB7EA2BC49A67DE98CF99000D422" target="_blank"><strong>Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index</strong></a> was little changed and continuing to point to an overall decline in manufacturing activity in the region. New order inflows remained negative.</p><p><a href="https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-retreated-3-3-in-june-monthly-median-sales-price-reached-second-highest-amount" target="_blank"><strong>Existing-home sales dropped</strong></a> -3.3% in June from May to an annual rate of 4.16 mln. Sales were down -18.9% from one year ago.. Sales declined in the South (-5.4% and the West (-5.1%), held steady in the Midwest and rose +2% in the Northeast.</p><p>So it will be surprise that <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators" target="_blank"><strong>a key leading indicator index</strong></a> fell in June. And it wasn't its first fall. The decline was driven by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, an