Are Democrats Whistling Past the Graveyard?

<p>A New York Times and Siena College poll released Nov. 5 showed Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in five of the six key swing states, with a notable jump in support among nonwhite and young voters. In response, Democrats freaked out.</p><p>But then two days later, voters across the country actually went to the polls, and Democrats and Democratic-associated policy did pretty well. In Kentucky, Andy Beshear held the governorship. Democrats took back the House of Delegates in Virginia. And Ohio voted for an amendment protecting abortion rights.</p><p>I asked Mike Podhorzer, a longtime poll skeptic, to help to help me understand the apparent gap between the polls and the ballot box. Podhorzer was the longtime political director of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. And as the founder of the Analyst Institute, he was the godfather of the data-driven turn in Democratic campaign strategy. He also writes a newsletter on these topics called “<a href="https://www.weekendreading.net/?utm_source=discover_search" target="_blank">Weekend Reading</a>.”</p><p>We discuss the underlying assumptions behind polling methodologies and what that says about their results; how to square Biden’s unpopularity with the Democrats’ recent wins; why he thinks an anti-MAGA majority is Biden’s best bet to the White House and how that coalition doesn’t always map cleanly onto demographic data; what a newly energized labor movement might means for Biden; and much more.</p><p>Mentioned:</p><p>“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html" target="_blank">We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.</a>” by Nate Cohn</p><p>Book Recommendations:</p><p>“<a href="https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/politics-and-the-english-language/" target="_blank">Politics and the English Language</a>” by George Orwell</p><p><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/708057/tyranny-inc-by-sohrab-ahmari/" target="_blank">Tyran