Antti Ilmanen: The Building Blocks of Long-Run Returns (EP.202)

<p>To carry on the trend of amazing guests on the show, today we welcome Antti Ilmanen. Antti is the co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR, and the author of a couple of really impactful books that we highly recommend. His most recent is <em>Investing Amid Low Expected Returns, </em>and in today's chat, we get to hear all about the ideas contained in its pages, and the most important moments in his career that have shaped his philosophy. Antti received his PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago and has had a long career of working with high profile names that you might recognize from past episodes of this podcast. Our guest talks about the need for cultivating your patience in relation to your investment portfolio and shares many other great pieces of practical advice that you can implement today. We delve into some bad investment habits that Antti noted in his book and also touch on the usefulness of bonds, illiquid assets, trend following, and much more. Be sure to tune in today to hear all that this great mind has to offer.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Key Points From This Episode:</strong></p> <p> </p> <ul> <li>The power and limitations of using historical data for calculating expected returns. <strong>[0:04:17]</strong></li> <li>Balancing historical data with market-implied expected returns. <strong>[0:07:47]</strong></li> <li>Antti comments on shifting into higher expected return equity markets. <strong>[0:11:37]</strong></li> <li>The role of bonds in revenue generation and why to not give up on them completely. <strong>[0:13:00]</strong></li> <li>Locating the roots of the positive premium that Antti associates with bonds. <strong>[0:16:35]</strong></li> <li>The effect of illiquid assets on expected returns. <strong>[0:19:44]</strong></li> <li>Why recent historical returns in real estate are not indicative of future expected returns. <strong>[0:23:40]</strong></li> <li>The response from institutional investors to lower expected returns. <strong>[0:26:09]</strong></li> <li>Situating value's curre