A sense the good times are ending

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>Today we lead with news financial and commodity markets have turned sharply fearful on concerns the economic expansion is waning. Risk aversion was gripping markets earlier today, and a lockdown crisis in Beijing isn't helping.</p><p>But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data#:~:text=The%20Chicago%20Fed%20National%20Activity,end%20of%20each%20calendar%20month." target="_blank"><strong>National Activity Index</strong></a> fell in March to its lowest in three months and February was revised lower. It was still recording an expansion, just a weaker one.</p><p>The more current <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2022/2204.aspx" target="_blank"><strong>Dallas Fed factory survey</strong></a> for April retreated to its lowest reading since October. Again, still expanding, but the track is weaker.</p><p>This overall pullback is being reflected in <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-SHIPPING/TRUCKING/zdpxogomavx/index.html" target="_blank"><strong>trucking demand stats</strong></a>, which are turning lower and quite sharply.</p><p>But April PMI data has actually been good. The US factory sector is expanding faster, even as those concerns about the future build. Their <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8d55cfa69f8e4e6eb8e54215dc3f22d6" target="_blank"><strong>manufacturing PMIs</strong></a> came in at their strongest in 7 months due to faster rises in output, new orders and employment. A rise in export orders is coming too. </p><p><a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220422/dq220422a-eng.htm?HPA=1" target="_blank"><strong>Canadian retail sales</strong></a> were expected to slip in February, but they rose in data released overnight, even if only marginally. They wo