A 100% Probability of Recession, Zillow Fumbles the Bag and Q&A

<p>This week several reports are being delivered, including the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the National Association of Homebuilder's Housing Market Index, the Fed's industrial production data for September and the latest Beige Book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts, as well as the Census Bureau's new residential construction data for September. The predictions for these reports range from 'no change' to 'really bad.'</p><p>In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied discuss the one report that has already been released, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and the 'modest decline' being seen in manufacturing in the state.</p><p><br></p><p>They discuss a recent presentation by National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, who predicted that interest rates could be on their way to 8.5% if they pass a threshold of 7%, basing his forecast on key levels of resistance borrowing costs will face after a key inflation indicator hit a 40-year high.</p><p><br></p><p>Chris and Saied look at Bloomberg's prediction that a US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months, representing a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.</p><p><br></p><p>They discuss a new House Prices to National Average Wage Index created by CalculatedRisk to address the difficulties of comparing the ratio of house prices to incomes, when most income data is released with a significant lag.</p><p><br></p><p>Chris and Saied also explore Zillow's bold (and deeply flawed) prediction that the so-called pandemic housing boom would see U.S. home prices soar another 17.8% between February 2022 and February 2023.</p><p><br></p><p>Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating conversation.</p><p><br></p><p>Enjoy!</p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><strong>What You’ll Learn in this Show:</strong></p><ul><li>Why NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun's prediction that interest rates could be on their way to 8.5% if they