256. Use the Barbell Strategy for Success in Creativity (& Life)

<p>The business of creative work is the business of riding randomness. If you want to write a bestselling book or launch a revolutionary company, you’re going to need luck. You’re navigating <a href= "http://kadavy.net/blog/posts/mediocristan-vs-extremistan/">Extremistan, not Mediocristan</a>, as I talked about in episode 253. How do you increase your chances of having a hit without risking everything? You do it with “The Barbell Strategy.” You can use the Barbell Strategy in many areas of life and work.<!--more--></p> <h3>The Barbell Strategy defined</h3> <p>The Barbell Strategy is introduced in <a href= "http://kadavy.net/blog/posts/the-black-swan-book-summary/">Nassim Taleb’s <em>The Black Swan</em></a>, which I summarized on episode 244. The Barbell Strategy protects you from catastrophic losses that can take you out of the game. Meanwhile, it gives you chances to make big gains.</p> <h4>Why “barbell”?</h4> <p>Think of a barbell – a very lopsided barbell. On one side of the barbell is a big weight. On the other side of the barbell is a small weight. In the middle is the thin bar that connects the two.</p> <p><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7146 size-large" src= "http://kadavy.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/barbell-strategy-750x450.png" alt="the barbell strategy" width="750" height="450" /></p> <h4>The Barbell Strategy is an investment strategy</h4> <p>Taleb introduces The Barbell Strategy in an investing context. This is the strategy Taleb has used as a financial trader. As we’ll see, you can apply it to other areas as well.</p> <p>Taleb says:</p> <blockquote> <p>If you know that you are vulnerable to prediction errors, and if you accept that most “risk measures” are flawed, because of the Black Swan, then your strategy is to <em>be as hyperconservative and hyperaggressive as you can be instead of being mildly aggressive or conservative</em>. (<em>emphasis mine</em>)</p> </blockquote> <p>In other words, you have to accept that the world is full of Black Swans. As a review, <a href= "http://kadavy.net/blog/po