064 – Big week for central banks and earnings season

<p>Last Week:</p> <p>· US - PCE: Core 4.4% y/y; moving in the right direction and lowest print in a year. 0.3% m/m.</p> <p>· GDP came in looking good on the surface but may have hidden weakness (consumer).</p> <p>· Australia CPI: inflation came in higher than expected. Likely adds another 1-2 hikes to the cycle.</p> <p>· BoC: Hiked by 25bps - peak rate. Looking to monitor transmission mechanism.</p> <p>This week:</p> <p>· Fed: 25 bps (priced in). Will the Fed send a strong message? Fed funds futures still pricing a pivot.</p> <p>· Can they deliver on 3 more hikes of 25bps? Seems like a tall order.</p> <p>· ECB on Thursday. Market does not expect dovishness. Likely going 50bps.</p> <p>· Still waiting for communication on terminal rate.</p> <p>· December statement and commentary are pointing to another 50bps after this one.</p> <p>· BoE: Forecasts give another 50bps, but not convinced here. Going to come down to the vote split.</p> <p>· NFP: Forecast: 175-195k (previous 223K). 3.5%--&gt;3.6% unemployment rate.</p> <p>· ISM Services - last print was a big surprise to the downside (49.6). Will it be able to reclaim 50?</p> <p>· Earnings: Meta, Apple, Alphabet, AMZN, TSLA reported last week (beat expectations).</p>