Episode 209: Popular SWR Delusions And The Madness Of Gurus And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 30, 2022

<div>In this episode we answer a lengthy email from Kevin about issues with popular estimates of Safe Withdrawal Rates.  We then discuss the problems with and failings of some of these estimates and their underlying analysis, including why Best Practices beat Convenient Shibboleths, failures to analyze non-simplistic portfolios, misuse of the &quot;reversion to the mean&quot; concept, improper use of conservative assumptions and modelling software, improper use of the 30-year time frame, and the failure to incorporate well-accepted favorable assumptions.  <br/><br/>We also discuss appeals to popularity and conflicts of interest, including safety in numbers, the use of double standards, the popularity of pessimism, and the desire to please sponsors, sell products and maintain past consistency, whether foolish or warranted.<br/><br/>And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at <a href='https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios'>Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio</a>.<br/><br/>Additional links:<br/><br/>SWR Series #34:  <a href='https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/01/08/gold-hedge-against-sequence-risk-swr-series-part-34/'>Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now</a><br/><br/>Next Level Life Video re Gold:  <a href='https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agR1gF_7s8k'>Why Are Gold Portfolios So Dependable? - YouTube</a><br/><br/>RAM Interview of Wade Pfau:  <a href='https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdeLnebsVjw'>ReSolve Riffs with Wade Pfau on Optimal Retirement Strategies - YouTube</a><br/><br/>Morningstar 2011 (Lousy) Predictions Article:  <a href='https://www.morningstar.com/articles/437410/your-forecasts-for-stock-and-bond-returns'>Your Forecasts for Stock and Bond Returns  (2011)| Morningstar</a><br/><br/>Portfolio Charts SWR/PWR Calculator:  <a href='https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/withdrawal-rates/'>WITHDRAWAL RATES – Portfolio Charts</a><br/><br/>Kitces Article Re Consequences of Retirement Spending