November 19, 2022 | Consumer Price Index, Inflation, Home Sales, S&P 500 Companies, Costco vs. Sam’s Club & Income Related Monthly Adjusted Amount (IRMAA)

<p>Consumer Price Index Even with all the fear, the consumer is still shopping. In October, retail sales were up 1.3% compared to September and up 8.3% compared to October 2021. This outpaced the inflation rate in the October CPI report which saw prices grow 0.4% month-over-month and 7.7% year-over-year. There were definitely areas in the retail sales report that benefited from higher prices as sales at gasoline stations were up 17.8% compared to last year and grocery stores saw sales climb 8.0% during the same time frame. For reference, the CPI showed gas prices climbed 17.5% year-over-year and food at home prices were up 12.4%. Other areas of strength in the report compared to last October were food services and drinking places up 14.1%, non-store retailers up 11.5%, and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers up 9.2%. The only two areas that saw declines were department stores, which fell 1.6% and electronics & appliance stores, which saw a decline of 12.1%. Two potential catalysts for the report included an additional Amazon Prime day in the month and the distribution of "inflation relief checks" of up to $1,050 in California. I hope that we do not see additional stimulus like this going forward as I believe it could create even more problems with inflation as it would create artificial demand. Inflation Good news on the inflation fronts this morning as the October Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 0.2% compared to last month. This was below the estimate of 0.4% and resulted in a year-over-year gain of 8%. It's crazy to think that an 8% increase is good news, but the numbers are decelerating. In September the year-over-year gain was 8.4% and back in March the report showed a gain of 11.7%. If commodity prices can stabilize/decrease even slightly and if we stop pumping money into the economy, I continue to believe inflation will be much less of a problem in 2023.</p> <p> Home Sales Mark down 9 straight monthly declines in existing home sales as there was a decline of 5.9% from September to Oc