Investing, GDP Report, Interest Rates, Gasoline Prices, Taxes, Inflation Relief Checks, Shipping Costs, Starbucks, Electric Vehicles & Tirzepatide for Obesity

<p>Investing You may be feeling that this year so far is the worst year investing in a long time. I’m here to tell you, you are correct if you are investing in the indexes and not value investing. Regarding stocks this has been the worst six months to start the year since 1970 as the S&P 500 was down 21% through the first six months. And if you thought you were safe in bonds at the beginning of the year, well that hasn't been the case. For the first six months of the year, US Treasuries were down about 11% which according to Duetsche Bank would be the worst start since 1788. And yes, you read that correctly it’s been well over 100 years. And crypto, Bitcoin just lost more than 38% of its value in June which was the worst month ever. I have often said investing is simple but not easy. I think this year people who are investing in the indexes may have a little bit better understanding of what I was talking about. GDP Report I have been of the belief that we would not see a recession until 2023, but as more data continues to be presented, I believe we may now be in a recession. The most recent data from Q1 GDP now shows the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.6% which was deeper than the initial reading of 1.4%. My concern for Q2 is now that the consumer has not been able to keep up with inflation and a strengthening dollar will not bode well for our trade imbalance. The consumer is primarily what carries the economy as consumption makes up close to 70% of GDP. If we look at retail sales in April, they grew at an annual rate of 8.2%, but CPI came in at 8.3% for the month. In May retail sales grew at an annual rate of 8.1%, but inflation was 8.6%. I believe for June we will also see a similar picture. It is important to understand that GDP looks at real growth which factors in inflation. I believe that the inflation numbers may be too high for the consumer to provide real growth. I continue to hold the belief that this will not be a deep recession by any means, and this is not the time to sell strong compa