Ukraine, COVID, monetary tightening all impacting market’s rollercoaster ride

Intense volatility in the Treasuries is the key factor dominating the markets this week. And it’s set to continue. <p>The erratic performance of the past few weeks has seen a low of 1.30 to a high of 1.90; it was sitting at 1.72 at the time of recording this episode.</p> <p>“There are so many questions around what the Fed is going to do, that’s affecting the short-term to two- to five-year sector,” explains Thirty Capital Analyst Bryan Kern.</p> <p>“That's obviously going to translate into some volatility in the Ten-year sector,” he continues. “We may retest the 1.61 to 1.65 levels. But, generally speaking, I think we'll see that trend continue on up towards our 2% target here in the first quarter.”</p> <p>In the coming week rates will be impacted by fourth-quarter GDP, along with inflation numbers and consumer confidence stats.</p> <h1>Long-term rates going up, short-term rates even higher</h1> <p>Bryan says the market’s question has changed from “Will the Fed hike in March?” to “Will the Fed hike 50 bps in March?”.</p> <p>He doesn’t think the hike will be that high, explaining: “There are some people who expect five total hikes of 125 basis points. I don't think we'll see that. I think the median is 100 bps. But having said that, I think that's going to create some volatility.</p> <p>“We will see a lot of volatility in that intermediate term three to five-year sector.”</p> <p>For commercial real estate investors, this means that long-term rates are going up, and short-term rates will be even higher.</p> <h1>Ukraine, COVID, Fed tightening all impacting markets</h1> <p>Analyst Jay Saunders points out that global events are heavily impacting the markets right now.</p> <p>“You've got the Fed pivoting from easy money to tightening. You've got Ukraine and you've got COVID. There are so many things right now pulling the market in different directions.</p> <p>“It’s really hard to know where it's going to go, but I think you will see a lot of volatility.”</p> <h1>Term SOFR now adopted in real estate transactions</h1> <p