War in Ukraine means commercial real estate investors face volatility in every corner of the market

<p>The war in Ukraine is massively impacting the capital markets, with volatility pervasive in every single corner of the financial markets.</p> <p> </p> <p>Last Thursday, there was a seven percent swing in the NASDAQ from high to low, while oil prices moved about three percent on average every day.</p> <p> </p> <p>Also last Thursday, the Ten-year Treasury fell 12 basis points at the open and then rose 10 basis points (bps) to finish the day nearly unchanged. Thirty Capital Analyst Bryan Kern says that across the curve rates are down about six to 12 basis points, depending on the part of the curve that you're watching.</p> <p> </p> <p>“We've got a lot of folks in the market who are looking to buy caps and it seems like we have to update those every 20 minutes. The price has changed wildly,” explains Bryan. “We caution folks as they look to purchase interest rate caps to continually get updates . . . just be prepared for price swings.”</p> <h1>It’s going to be a wild week on the capital markets</h1> <p> </p> <p>Thirty Capital Analyst Jay Saunders says this week could be one of the wildest the markets have seen in a long time. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Powell’s words will be watched very closely by market analysts, as they will likely be his final public comments on monetary policy ahead of the U.S. central bank raising interest rates to fight decades-high inflation.</p> <p> </p> <p>And tomorrow - Tuesday, March 1 - President Joe Biden will give his State of the Union address. On Friday, employment numbers will be issued, along with a slew of other economic data.</p> <p> </p> <p>Jay adds that while many seem to have forgotten about COVID, it’s still there and impacting the markets and the economy as a whole, as is, of course, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.</p> <h1>What does all this mean if you’re in commercial real estate?</h1> <p>Bryan notes that this week has started with curve steepening slightly. The Two-year is down about 11 bps, while the Te