October 7, 2023 | Jobs Report, JOLTs Report, Oil Prices, Investment Returns and Social Security

<p>Jobs Report The September jobs report was released on Friday, October 6 and at first glance it was scary because it was so good. But then as the day moved on the report was analyzed further and positive information was found. What was scary about the report was 336,000 jobs created, twice as much as expected. This caused concern that there would be a definite increase in interest rates in November by the Fed. Also giving more concern was the July and August numbers were revised higher 119,000. But as the day progressed and the numbers were analyzed, it was understood that average hourly earnings had only increased 0.2% below the expected 0.3%. This is also the mildest we have seen over the last 18 months. The federal reserve has been concerned about wage growth, and this report is proof there should be no concern on wage growth. The strength in the job market was seen in leisure and hospitality, healthcare, professional, scientific, and technical services. What this report is revealing is that we can increase people working but yet wages are not getting out of hand which is something the federal reserve was concerned about. The consumer price index which is the gauge on inflation will be released next Thursday, October 12 and based on what we are seeing here at Wilsey Asset Management we believe it will be a good report and if that holds true, we could be done with anymore rate increases for the rest of 2023 which raises the green flag to invest in the right equities.</p> <p> </p> <p>JOLTs Report The JOLTs report showed Job openings rose by nearly 700,000 in the month of August to 9.61 million. This easily topped the estimate of 8.8 million and means there are still about 1.5 jobs available for each unemployed worker. Layoffs also remained low at just 1.7 million. While this is positive for the labor market, concerns remain that a tight labor market could pressure the Fed to continue tightening policy. I believe there are other factors on the inflation front that should lead to a stabilization from the Fed rat