Hong Kong exports slump to 70 year lows

<p>Kia ora,</p><p>Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.</p><p>I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.</p><p>And today we lead with news we are in that transition zone where 'gains' and 'losses' are offsetting each other.</p><p>First, American <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>durable goods orders</strong></a> retreated in January from December. A fall was expected mainly because there was an outsized rise the prior month, but it was more than anticipated. However the retreat was mainly due to a drop in orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding that, there was a rise. And on the same basis, capital goods order rose as well, suggesting boardrooms are still in 'invest' mode. (It is likely that February orders will jump, based on some very large recent aircraft orders.) Year on year, durable orders are up +3.0% and non-aircraft capital goods orders are up +5.3%. (As an aside, it is notable how small defence orders are in the scheme of things. They represent less than 5% of total orders and are pretty stable. You might have thought the defense of Ukraine would have supersized these, but it hasn't been the case.)</p><p>In the US oil patch, the Dallas Fed's <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2023/2302" target="_blank"><strong>factory survey is weak in February</strong></a>. We have noted it declining for some time, but now it is lower than year-ago levels for the first time since May 2020. The non-month run of declining new orders has caught up with them. This is a specialised region, so it is hard to draw national conclusions from it.</p><p>But nationally, in what their sector suspects is a turning point, the number of <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-improved-for-second-straight-month-up-8-1-in-january" target="_blank"><strong>pending home sales</strong></a> in January rose more than expected from D