#141 Pakistan, Afghanistan....Hindustan: The Akhanda Bharat Edition 🎧

<strong><em>Matsyanyaaya #1</em></strong><strong>: What Does Pakistan’s Cadmean Victory in Afghanistan Mean for India</strong><br/><br/><em>Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action</em><br/><br/>— Pranay Kotasthane<br/><br/><em>(This is a draft of my article which appeared first in </em><a target="_blank" href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/paks-generals-afs-taliban-new-delhi-should-know-islamabads-military-jihadi-complex-will-ruthlessly-use-kabul/"><em>Times of India’s Tuesday, August 23rd edition</em></a><em>.)</em><br/><br/>Taliban's takeover of Kabul is forcing India to reassess its aims and objectives concerning Afghanistan. Of primary interest is the impact of this development on Pakistan. On this question, two views have come to light over the last few days.<br/>The first view cautions against the increase in terrorism from Pakistan. The recommendation arising from this view is that India needs to coalesce anti-Pakistan factions in Afghanistan. The counter-view focuses on the inevitability of a split between the Taliban and Pakistan. The assumption being that once the Taliban assumes political control over Afghanistan, it is bound to take some stances that will go against the interests of its sponsor. The recommendation arising from this view is that India should sit back. It should let things unfold because Pakistan's victory is a Cadmean one — it comes with massive costs for Pakistan's economy, society, and politics.<br/>Which of these two divergent views is likely to play out?  <br/>To understand what the Taliban's victory means for Pakistan — and hence India — it is useful to model Pakistan as two geopolitical entities, not one. The first entity is a seemingly normal Pakistani state, presumably concerned first and foremost with the peace and prosperity of its citizens. The second entity is what my colleague Nitin Pai has named the Pakistani military-jihadi complex (MJC). Comprising the military, militant, radical Islamist and political-economic nodes, the MJC pursues dom